Sunday, January 18, 2009

Contango Conundrum

An intersting contango has been developed in WTI crude oil futures market. The Futures for Feb delivery can be traded at around $36-37 while if you want to buy same crude oil for delivery in March you have to shell out $42-44/ per barrel. I am not too experinced in oil trading so its really amazing for me to see that one can earn around 20% returns buying oil in February and selling it again in march. After reading a bit more i realise that it truly is the case but its not all that easy as it sounds. First the contract requires delivery at a particular place and that too of a specific grade. In addition to this the contract size is around 1000 barrels and guys who normally deliver trade in thousands of barrel so 1 or 2 contracts are virtually undeliverable, the costs could actually be very high. In addition to this there are storage costs involved as Cushing where it has to be delivered has a limited capacity and is already storing lots of crude oil.
On speaking to an oil trader i realised that since storage costs are high there is some forced selling happening in spot markets or may be to put it other way unless one has huge incentive to store the oil ( i.e. high prices in future) nobody would like to buy oil unless ofcourse one is a refiner.
Herein lies the issue however, theoretically after a week March deivery contract will become front month contract and should very soon start reflecting spot prices. This means either the spot prices should rise to $42-$44 or the futures price should come down to reflect current spot level. Thus there exists an opportunity of atleast +$7 to -$7. A very crude analysis and research but I think the better odds are for the seller of the contract as the economy in USA might not improve in a month leading to price rise of around 20%.But then Oil has developed a good positive correlation with stock markets off late. If Obama effect works on stocks may be we might see some action in oil prices too. The only problem is this, can refiners pass on the higher costs of purchases to consumers. I think not.