A Billion Dollar Stimulus

The Indian markets have been rallying for the past 2 weeks without any particular reason. Some say its the trough in negative news worldwide, some attribute it to strength being shown by Indian economy especially auto, cement and steel sector, some also point to the technicals like not breaking earlier support levels and then there are theories of pre election rallies too. I think all of them are right to a certain extent but the bigger question now is of how long and how much more.
I think the answer to this question is once again based on the weightage one attributes to the above reasons, the negative news in US and elsewhere is still too weak to support a rally and we have been consistently seeing a resisitance at 826 levels for S&P. The support of 804 is now crucial because negative data can't go unnoticed for a very long time. Something's gotta give, either data will turn positive or the rally in US is petering out.
Technicals are finally only indicators and aid in timing and suitability of trade they are no reason for rally by themselves and therefore i don't attribute much weight to them. I would only say that for every support there is a resistance and for every right pattern there are many wrong patterns too.
The indian econpmy has shown good strength but i doubt the sustainance of it due to seasonal factors and pre election expenditure. Even the industry experts are surprised by the strength in data and i would have waited for atleast one more month before believing in the strength. This time though as elections are also around in April i think the strength can sustain itself because of the "Billion Dollar stimulus" provided by the Election themselves. A back of the envelope calculation shows that if 2 leading candidates spend around Rs. 5 crores each in every constituency. This would generate an expenditure of around Rs. 5400 crores or a billion dollar. This itself can give a lot of stimulus to the economy and provide sustainance to the economy.If that is so then markets can still trade higher till next month.
Pre-election rallies can also meet post election busts so i would be careful myself before i buy that argument, even if whole of the market goes insane and buys the lows made in march, i think the zeal to get to not to be the last to sell will ensure markets don't go too high and a sell-off could be very near.
All said and done, the only reason i think markets can go up from here is the billion dollar stimulus being provided to economy during March and April. Lets hope that the strenght continues but i would resist buying at these levels.
On the contrary some stocks looking attractive to sell include shipping stocks and a few midcaps.